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电网技术  2015 

基于非参数回归的风电场理论功率计算方法

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.08.013, PP. 2148-2153

Keywords: 风力发电,风电场理论功率,非参数回归,理论功率计算,相关系数加权

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Abstract:

风电场理论功率计算可用于恢复风电场限电等非正常功率数据,对于恢复历史功率数据、建立风电场功率统计预测模型、计算限电量和电力交易结算等具有重要意义。在分析大量风电场实际功率数据的基础上,对于无完整调度控制指令记录和风机运行记录的风电场,根据其实际运行状态和风机类型,合理设置筛选阈值,剔除了限电等非正常功率数据;根据实际功率曲线的特点,采用风向、气压等气象数据对样本数据进行划分;然后采用非参数回归方法拟合风机功率曲线并计算单机理论功率,根据相关系数加权方法修正和补齐缺失功率数据,提出基于非参数回归的风电场理论功率计算方法,并建立完整的理论功率计算模型。通过实际风电场测试,验证了方法的有效性和正确性,并与风电场发电能力验证方法的计算结果进行比较,验证所提方法的先进性。

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