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电网技术  2015 

计及可信度的变结构贝叶斯网络电网故障诊断

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.09.043, PP. 2658-2664

Keywords: 电网故障诊断,故障模式,可信度,贝叶斯网络,变结构

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Abstract:

现有贝叶斯网络电网故障诊断方法受电网结构复杂、保护与断路器动作信息不确定性等影响,存在所建网络模型复杂、诊断结果不准确的不足。提出了一种计及可信度的变结构贝叶斯网络电网故障诊断方法。首先根据故障告警信息、由电网接线分析搜索得到疑似故障元件,根据收集的与疑似元件相关的保护与断路器动作信息,判断疑似元件所属的故障模式,建立该故障模式下的贝叶斯网络模型;其次对模型中各保护与断路器事件的状态和发生时刻分别进行可信度评估,计算出各事件的可信度值,将其代入含可信度的贝叶斯推理公式,计算得到元件的故障概率,判断故障元件、识别误动或拒动的保护与断路器。多组算例验证了所提方法能够准确判断故障元件。

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