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高精度曲面建模的中国气候降尺度模型

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2012.00599, PP. 599-610

Keywords: 空间插值,降尺度,全国尺度,高精度曲面建模,空间变系数

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Abstract:

与站点统计降尺度插值和动力降尺度相比,高精度曲面建模(HASM)降尺度,具有不需大尺度预报因子,直接从GCM结果构建区域上高空间分辨率的未来气候模拟曲面的优势。HASM降尺度将未来气候,分为历史观测拟合的气候基准值和GCM未来气候变化值进行模拟,精度明显高于传统方法,但常系数全局拟合的气候基准值忽略了降水分布的空间非平稳性,导致降水模拟受到较大影响。为增强降水降尺度的气候背景值的描述能力,通过分析全国尺度降水的非线性非平稳性特点,提出耦合空间变系数气候基准值的HASM空间变系数降尺度模型(HASM-SVDM)以改进HASM对非平稳要素的降尺度能力,并以1961-2010年全国气温降水观测数据结合地形特征信息,利用HASM降尺度方法对HadCM3的A1Fi、A2a和B2a3种情景的1961-1990、2010-2039、2040-2069和2070-2099时段的全国未来气温与降水进行降尺度模拟。分析表明,耦合全局线性模型的HASM常系数降尺度模型适合全国气温的降尺度模拟,而耦合空间变系数拟合的HASM-SVDM增强了空间非平稳背景值的描述能力,模拟的空间分布更能体现降水总体的非均匀分布趋势,适合全国降水的降尺度模拟。

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