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流域性暴雨洪涝灾害风险预警模型与应用分析

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2011.00354, PP. 354-360

Keywords: 暴雨洪涝,灾害风险,预警,模型

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Abstract:

洪涝灾害是我国影响范围最广、持续时间最长、造成损失最大的一类自然灾害。暴雨是洪涝灾害的最主要致灾因素,所以,暴雨洪涝灾害风险预警研究是洪涝灾害防灾减灾的重要基础。本文立足洪涝灾害应急管理工作要求,对洪涝灾害系统空间仿真模拟研究模式进行改进,采用流域地表径流模拟代替控制断面水位模拟,彻底解决流域地表产流及河道水位模拟限制,建立"地表径流—流域淹没分析—灾害损失预评估"风险预警模型,提高模型适应性。该模型具有较高的准确性、时效性、可操作性,能够为防灾避难提供科学依据。

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