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东北地区TRMM数据降尺度的GWR模型分析……………………………

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2015.01055, PP. 1055-1062

Keywords: TRMM,降尺度,东北地区,GWR

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Abstract:

利用东北地区2000-2010年93个气象站点观测数据作为“真实值”,对TRMM降水数据进行精度验证,发现研究区TRMM降水数据与观测数据之间具有明显的线性相关性,且TRMM降水数据数值偏大于观测值,表明TRMM降水数据在东北地区具有一定的可信度。对东北地区多年平均、2001、2010年的TRMM数据,进行GWR模型降尺度研究,得到1km的新降水数据,并与全局OLS回归模型进行对比。结果表明(1)相比全局OLS回归模型,GWR模型的降尺度结果可获得更好的R与RMSE,说明GWR模型更适用于东北地区TRMM数据的降尺度研究;(2)东北地区GWR模型的降尺度分析结果与观测数据之间的相关系数在0.44-0.97之间,且分布较分散;(3)经过降尺度的TRMM降水数据,在空间分辨率上有较大提高,能更真实地反映研究区的降水特征,为该数据小尺度的应用研究奠定基础。

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