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铁路客运专线特大桥沉降预测模型

, PP. 31-36

Keywords: 铁路客运专线,特大桥,沉降变形,混沌理论,时间序列,预测模型

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Abstract:

针对客运专线特大桥沉降提出混沌行为测定方法,利用非线性理论与混沌时间序列方法,建立了铁路客运专线特大桥沉降预测模型。采用嵌入定理,对特大桥沉降时间序列进行重构。通过计算相关维度、Kolmogorov熵、最大Lyapunov指数来测定该时间序列的混沌行为特征,并以石武客运专线某座特大桥A、B桥墩为例进行实例研究。计算结果表明利用沉降预测模型,A桥墩的最大沉降量为0.0725mm,最小沉降量为0.0201mm,B桥墩最大沉降量为0.0697mm,最小沉降量为0.0304mm,预测值和实际值误差均在±0.0050mm范围内。可见,预测模型有效,预测结果满足桥梁沉降变形监测技术要求。

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