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山区公路事故率与平面线形的关系

, PP. 63-71

Keywords: 交通安全,山区公路,平面线形,事故率,角度变化率,回归分析,最小二乘法

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Abstract:

统计了2条山区公路的交通事故数据与平面线形数据,采用角度变化率作为平面线形的表征参数,对样本路段区间内的事故率与角度变化率进行回归分析,分别计算了当前样本路段向前0.25、0.50、0.75、1.00、1.50km等多个计算区间上的平均角度变化率。对角度变化率进行二次处理,利用最小二乘法拟合了事故率与角度变化率之间的曲线关系。分析结果表明路段1、2区间内的事故率与角度变化率的拟合判定系数较低,分别为0.4142和0.1208;在当前样本路段向前0.50km的计算区间上,事故率与平均角度变化率的正二次抛物线关系均最明显,拟合判定系数分别为0.9661和0.7908;当平均角度变化率大约在0.0020(°).km-1时,事故率最低。

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