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高铁乘客换乘常规公交平均等候时间模型

, PP. 76-82

Keywords: 交通规划,公共交通,数值仿真,换乘,平均等候时间

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Abstract:

分析了高铁乘客换乘常规公交等候时间的特性,实测了高铁枢纽内公交站台乘客的到达时间,对乘客到达时间进行了分布拟合与K-S检验。基于概率论方法,建立了考虑公交车辆运载能力限制的乘客平均等候时间模型,验证了模型的有效性,并仿真分析了高铁列车与公交车辆到达时间间隔、换乘人数、公交车辆运载能力及公交车辆准点率对乘客平均等候时间的影响。仿真结果表明当高铁列车到达时间间隔为10min,公交车辆到达时间间隔从200s增加至600s时,换乘乘客的平均等候时间由120s增加至1000s;当公交车辆的运载能力为50人?veh-1,换乘人数从50增加至200时,换乘乘客的平均等候时间由100s增加至900s;当公交车辆平均到达时间间隔为200s,公交车辆到达时间间隔标准差从0增加至400s时,换乘乘客的平均等候时间由110s增加至800s。换乘乘客的平均等候时间与公交车辆到达时间间隔呈正相关关系,与高铁列车到达时间间隔呈负相关关系,与换乘人数呈正相关关系,与公交车辆的准点率呈负相关关系。

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