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基于LS-SVM算法和性能可靠性的航空发动机在翼寿命预测方法

, PP. 92-100

Keywords: 航空发动机,在翼寿命,性能可靠性,时间序列,Weibull分布,最小二乘支持向量机

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Abstract:

以航空发动机的实际性能监测数据为基础,建立了时变性能退化模型,并进行了性能趋势预测。根据监测数据中大量与在翼寿命紧密相关的信息,分析了性能退化过程与失效分布函数之间的关系,得到了给定可靠度下的航空发动机在翼寿命。以航空发动机的实际在翼寿命为基础,利用K-S拟合检验方法对在翼寿命分布模型进行检验,采用最小二乘支持向量机确定了模型参数。结合性能退化趋势,计算了修正后的航空发动机在翼寿命,并以6台PW4000航空发动机为案例进行实例验证。分析结果表明当正则化参数分别为25、37、28、40、27与35时,6台PW4000航空发动机的实际在翼寿命依次为6921、7160、7820、8490、8498、6921循环,对应的在翼寿命预测值依次为6534、6726、7378、7940、9103、6534循环,最大相对误差为0.071190,最小相对误差为0.055917,平均相对误差为0.060824,可见,提出的方法可以很好地满足工程实际需要。

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