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高压电器  2015 

基于威布尔分布的油纸套管寿命预测模型

DOI: 10.13296/j.1001-1609.hva.2015.11.017, PP. 103-109

Keywords: 油纸套管,寿命预测,威布尔分布,电场分布,蒙特卡罗仿真

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Abstract:

为研究油纸套管的寿命分布以及发生层间击穿后的剩余寿命,结合绝缘材料寿命的威布尔分布理论,建立了套管绝缘层寿命模型。并利用蒙特卡罗方法仿真计算了某型号110kV油纸套管的寿命分布以及发生层间击穿后的剩余寿命分布。研究表明,该型号油纸套管的寿命符合形状参数为19.68,尺度参数为22.05的威布尔分布。当发生一层和两层击穿之后,形状参数分别减小为5.47和0.22,这意味着发生层间击穿之后由于电场分布的改变使得套管的寿命会迅速减小,层间击穿对于套管内绝缘是一个自加速过程,这对油纸套管的监测与检修具有一定的意义。

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