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联合太阳和行星际物理参数预测行星际激波能否到达地球

DOI: 10.11728/cjss2014.01.011, PP. 11-23

Keywords: 太阳瞬变爆发活动,行星际激波,太阳高能粒子,空间天气预报

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Abstract:

选取第23太阳活动周(1997—2006年)期间542例由太阳爆发活动驱动的行星际激波事件,分析确定了太阳源头和行星际空间中影响行星际激波能否到达地球轨道的关键物理参数;在此基础上,建立了预测行星际激波能否到达地球的新预报模型(EdEaSPM).回溯预报结果表明,EdEaSPM模型的预报成功率约为66%,略高于国际一流预报模型的预报成功率;EdEaSPM模型的虚报率未超过50%,改善了当前国际主流模型虚报率较大的情况;对于偏度指标,虽然当前所有模型的偏度值均大于1,但EdEaSPM模型的偏度值最接近于1且明显小于其他模型的偏度值;EdEaSPM模型的其他评价指标也都高于国际主流模型的相应指标.此外,选取2012年期间的激波事件对EdEaSPM模型进行了预报检验,预测结果与实际情况吻合.EdEaSPM模型不仅能够提前约1~3天进行预报,而且预报效果与国际一流模型具有可比性,尤其是在提高预报成功率及降低虚报率方面具有一定优势.

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