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X级以上耀斑与地磁效应关系研究

DOI: 10.11728/cjss2015.04.415, PP. 415-423

Keywords: 耀斑,地磁效应,日冕物质抛射,日面大尺度扰动

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Abstract:

统计研究了2010年1月至2012年12月期间所有与耀斑爆发相伴生的日冕物质抛射(CME)引发的地磁暴事件.结果表明,对于CME源区其主要分布在日面45°E-45°W,占总数的78.95%,且西半球比东半球多,即源区位于西半球的CME易产生地磁效应;X级耀斑与地磁效应的关联性更高,60.0%的X级耀斑在其爆发后的2~3天内观测到地磁暴,而其他级别的耀斑与地磁效应的关联性低得多,均不足10%;通过对此期间日面爆发的所有X级耀斑研究分析后发现,对于源区位于日面东经45°E-45°W的X级耀斑,若在其爆发过程中没有大尺度日面扰动,则无伴生CME且后续产生地磁效应的可能性很低.由此提出一种通过分析日面观测数据进行地磁暴预报的方法.

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