摘要 为了充分提高对复杂系统安全评价的准确性与可靠性，提出了将危险度评价法、HAZOP分析、LOPA研究与Bow-Tie分析有机结合的复杂工艺系统安全评价模型.首先应用危险度评价法确定系统中危险度等级较高的单元，对其进行详细的HAZOP分析；然后利用LOPA对后果严重的事故场景进行研究，依据半定量风险矩阵评估事故的剩余风险等级，借助于LOPA完善HAZOP分析；最后通过Bow-Tie分析详细识别出防止防护层失效的关键措施，从根本上避免有重大伤亡或财产损失的工艺安全事故的发生.以辽河石化公司的重油催化裂化装置为例进行应用研究，验证了该模型的适用性与可靠性.Abstract：In order to fully improve accuracy and reliability of safety assessment for complex systems， a risk evaluation model for complicated process by combining risk evaluation with HAZOP， LOPA and Bow-Tie analysis. Firstly， higher risk units in system are chosen by risk evaluation method， and detailed HAZOP analysis is conducted for such higher risk node. Secondly， LOPA is applied for scenarios with higher risk， and the residual risk level of accident is evaluated based on the semi-quantitative risk matrix， and HAZOP case library was enriched by means of LOPA; Finally， key activities to prevent the failure of IPL (independent protection layer) are identified useless working through Bow-Tie analysis， then the safety accident with heavy casualties or property damage caused by system unsafe behavior is fundamentally prevent. Taking the RFCC (residue fluid catalytic cracking) equipment in Liaohe Petrochemical Industry Company as an example， the applicability and reliability of the model were verified through field application.
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