复合型工艺风险评估模型的研究及其现场应用

摘要 充分考虑石化装置的复杂工艺特点，建立了基于贝叶斯网络的危险与可操作性研究(HAZOP)、保护层分析(LOPA)、领结分析(Bow-Tie分析)于一体的复合型工艺风险评估模型.首先编制系统故障树，将其映射成对应贝叶斯网络，利用GeNIe软件实现贝叶斯双向推理进行故障预测和诊断，找出最容易导致事故的风险贝叶斯故障节点；然后运用HAZOP-LOPA集成分析研究该节点参数出现偏差的原因及后果，通过独立保护层失效概率评估风险等级；最后对剩余风险等级较高的事件进行Bow-Tie 分析，辨识出使保护层持续有效的关键活动，进而控制后果严重的工艺安全事故.以辽河石化公司的延迟焦化装置为例对该风险评估模型进行了现场应用.
Abstract：Taking into full account the complex process of a petrochemical plant， a risk evaluation model based on Bayesian networks for composite techniques was built， which integrates HAZOP， LOPA and Bow-tie analysis. Firstly， the system fault tree was prepared， which was mapped into corresponding Bayesian networks， and the GeNIe software was utilized for fault prediction and diagnosis with the two-way reasoning of Bayesian networks and for locating the Bayesian risk fault node which most likely leads to accidents. Secondly， the causes and consequences of deviation occurring in the node parameters were studied by combining HAZOP and LOPA， and the risk level was confirmed through the failure probability of identified protection layers. Lastly， Bow-Tie analysis was applied to the remaining higher risk events for identifying the key activities to continuously sustain IPL effectively and then preventing the serious technique safety accidents from happening. Moreover， this risk evaluation model was put into use in the delayed coking device of Liaohe Petrochemical Company.