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基于贝叶斯网络的HAZOP-LOPA集成分析与应用

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3026.2014.09.031, PP. 1356-1359

Keywords: 故障树,贝叶斯网络,防护层分析,催化裂化,风险分析

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Abstract:

针对事件树、故障树等风险分析存在一定局限性的问题,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的HAZOP-LOPA集成风险评估新思路.编制系统故障树,利用GeNIe软件将其映射成贝叶斯网络,运用贝叶斯网络双向推理进行故障预测和诊断,快速识别系统薄弱环节并确定为风险贝叶斯故障节点,结合HAZOP与LOPA对其进行风险集成分析,提出相应的独立防护层,根据防护层失效概率并参照半定量风险矩阵确定剩余风险等级.该风险评估模型在辽河石化公司催化裂化装置的反应再生系统中进行应用,结果证实该模型在复杂工艺信息不确定条件下,能有效提高风险评估的针对性、客观性与准确性.

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