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大豆科学  2015 

黑龙江大豆种植格局及相应保险费率厘定变化分析

DOI: 10.11861/j.issn.1000-9841.2015.03.0507, PP. 507-511

Keywords: 种植面积,单产分布模型,费率

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Abstract:

在黑龙江大豆种植面积锐减和自然灾害加重的背景下,掌握大豆种植格局和相应的纯费率对制定大豆种植政策和保险政策,保障大豆粮食安全有重要意义。本研究依据1993~2012年黑龙江13个地市和农垦总局(ARB)20年的播种面积和产量数据,运用统计学和单产分布模拟推导法分析了黑龙江播种面积和分布格局变化,并厘定了相应的大豆保险纯费率。结果表明:黑龙江大豆播种面积在2009年达到最大,随后逐年锐减,2012年为260万hm2,仅为2009的53.%。2012年,齐齐哈尔、黑河和农垦总局为黑龙江大豆三大种植区,占全省的56.5%,费率分别为6.2%、3.6%和2.9%,全省13个地市和农垦总局的费率范围是2.9%~8.9%,平均值为5.6%。齐齐哈尔种植规模大,费率相对较高,在灾害防御投入、财政补贴等方面宜优先考虑。

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