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人口年龄结构变化与经济增速、股市涨跌的动态关系基于脉冲响应分析的实证研究

DOI: 10.15936/j.cnki.1008-3758.2015.04.005, PP. 355-361

Keywords: 人口年龄结构,GDP增速,股市,脉冲响应

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Abstract:

近年来,中国人口老龄化的趋势非常明显。选取2000—2012年的月度数据,应用向量自回归模型考察了我国人口年龄结构、GDP增速及股市涨跌情况的动态关系。实证结果表明:GDP增速与股市涨跌间存在较密切的动态关系;老年人口比重对GDP增速和股市涨跌的冲击最为显著,而且呈现出明显的负向关系;成年人口比重与GDP增速、股市涨跌均呈现明显的正向关系;GDP增速与股市涨跌在长期内对于三类人口结构的影响都不明显。

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