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北京日光温室风灾风险分析及区划

, PP. 43-49

Keywords: 日光温室,风灾,风险区划

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Abstract:

利用北京市1981-2010年30a的气象观测资料,结合温室灾情数据资料,计算了不同风力对北京温室可造成的灾害的概率,确定了日光温室风灾等级划分的量化标准,并对日光温室风灾风险的时空变化进行了评估。结果表明,当风力达3级(3.4m?s-1)以上时,即有可能对温室大棚造成灾害。风速越大,成灾概率越大。小波分析表明,北京日光温室致灾风力的发生日数存在14~16a的周期,春季温室致灾风多发。北京温室风灾风险总体上呈现自南向北增大的趋势。延庆佛爷顶周围一带风灾风险最大,北部山区次之;平原地区风灾风险较轻,且日光温室分布较多,该区域采取及时有效的风灾预防措施,有利于日光温室产业的发展。

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