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非洲干旱对中国农牧交错带干旱的时间位相预警信号研究

, PP. 24-31

Keywords: 中国农牧交错带,非洲萨哈尔带,干旱,时间序列,相关性检验

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Abstract:

中国北方农牧交错带和非洲Sahel地区均处在季风尾闾带的干旱向半湿润气候过渡的的地区,两者在近百年的干湿变化上有着近似的变化周期。本文以非洲Sahel西部地区和中国华北农牧交错带为研究区,通过功率谱分析了两个降水序列的变化周期,用相关分析研究两者之间的滞后时间,由此检测非洲干旱对于中国农牧交错带干旱的预警水平。研究发现,两个地区在降水的年际和年代际变化上存在很好的相似性,中国农牧交错带的干旱比非洲干旱的时间位相滞后约15年,这个时间位相差作为预警中国北方农牧交错带的干旱的置信水平为0.01。

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