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草业学报  2014 

青海省三江源牧区雪灾综合风险评估

DOI: 10.11686/cyxb20140213, PP. 108-116

Keywords: 牧区雪灾,综合风险评估,三江源地区

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Abstract:

本研究采用Logistic回归方法,以ArcGIS和SPSS软件为工具,选取2010年冬春季平均雪深、积雪日数、雪灾重现率、坡度、牲畜密度、冬春超载率、产草量、地区GDP和农牧民纯收入9项雪灾风险因子,建立了三江源地区雪灾综合风险评估Logistic回归模型,并对其进行了风险评价与区划。结果显示,1)1960-1980年,三江源地区冬春季雪灾发生频次处于一较长时期的低值期。1980以后,雪灾频率呈增加态势,期间雪灾频次占59年来雪灾总数的62%。在空间分布上,雪灾主要集中在三江源地区东南部一带。2)回归模型系数中,平均雪深、雪灾重现率、产草量和牲畜密度因子对雪灾影响程度占有绝对权重,其回归系数分别为2.17,1.38,1.27和0.92,而农牧民人均纯收入的影响程度则最低。3)2010年,三江源地区雪灾极高风险区主要集中在巴颜喀拉山南部的玉树、称多、杂多和囊谦县,以及巴颜喀拉山与阿尼玛卿山之间的甘德、达日、玛沁和久治县,而极低风险区则地处西部可可西里无人区和沱沱河流域大部分区域。4)根据Logistic回归模型,在ArcGIS中绘制的三江源雪灾综合风险区划图与历史实际雪灾空间分布基本吻合。该研究不仅可为防灾减灾救灾部门制定灾前减灾规划、灾后救助和恢复决策提供科学依据,而且对于牧区减轻雪灾损失、保障畜牧业可持续发展也具有重要意义。

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