全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...
草业学报  2015 

中国南方干旱灾害风险评估

DOI: 10.11686/cyxb20150503, PP. 12-24

Keywords: 中国南方,干旱灾害风险,评估

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

干旱灾害风险评估是灾害风险管理的关键途径。通过分析干旱灾害风险成因,从干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力四大因子入手,以灾害学理论为基础,构建干旱灾害风险评估模型,然后根据相关气象、地理环境和社会经济数据,在GIS平台上对中国南方地区进行了干旱灾害风险评估。得到以下结论:1)干旱致灾因子的高危险区主要位于云南省的中东部以及与四川的交界处,川西高山高原区和东部盆地的遂宁、宜宾市,以及广东东部沿海地区;2)孕灾环境的高脆弱区主要分布在云南中东部、四川东部盆地以及贵州西北部;3)承灾体的高暴露区主要位于广东东部、雷州半岛和沿海地区,广西南部以及四川盆地的大部分地区;4)防灾减灾能力较高的区域主要位于重庆西部、四川西部、云南东北部、贵州中部、广西南部以及广东中东部地区;5)干旱灾害的高风险区主要位于四川东部盆地、四川与云南交界处、云南东北大部分地区、广西西南部以及广东东北部和雷州半岛;干旱灾害的低风险区主要位于四川北部山区以及广东和广西的北部。

References

[1]  The Group of ADB Technical Assistance to China About Strategic Research on Risk Management on Drought Disaster. Strategic Research on Risk Management on Drought Disaster in China[M]. Beijing: China Waterpower Press, 2011: 1-3.
[2]  Huang X Y, Wang X P, Wang J S, et al . Spatial and temporal characteristics of the consecutive dry days in recent 53 years in Mainland China. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2014, 32(3): 326-333.
[3]  Tu C W, Huang S S. The fluctuation of the monsoon region boundary in China. Acta Meteorological Sinica, 1944, 18: 1-20.
[4]  Wang Y, Wang J S, Yao Y B, et al . Dynamic monitoring of drought based on temperature vegetation dryness index in Guangdong province. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2014, 23(2): 98-107.
[5]  Sun C M, Liu T, Tian T, et al . Remote sensing estimation and application of grassland NPP based on MODIS data in southern China. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2013, 22(5): 11-17.
[6]  Yin H, Li Y H. Summary of advance on drought study in southwest China. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2013, 31(1): 182-193.
[7]  UGS. Quantitative risk assessment for slopes and landslides-the state of the art. In: Cruden D, Fell R. Landslide Risk Assessment[M]. Rotterdam: A A Balkema, 1997.
[8]  Guangdong Statistical Bureau. Guangdong Statistical Yearbook: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013.
[9]  Guangxi Statistical Bureau. Statistical Yearbook of Guangxi: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013.
[10]  Guizhou Statistical Bureau. Guizhou Statistical Yearbook: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013.
[11]  Yunnan Statistical Bureau. Yunnan Statistical Yearbook: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013.
[12]  Sichuan Statistical Bureau. Sichuan Statistical Yearbook: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013.
[13]  Zhang Q, Han L Y, Zhang L Y, et al . Analysis on the character and management strategy of drought disaster and risk under the climatic warming. Advances in Earth Science, 2014, 29(1): 80-91.
[14]  Heim Jr R R. A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 2002, 83(8): 1149-1165. 2.3.CO;2 target="_blank">
[15]  Zou X K, Ren G Y, Zhang Q. Droughts variations in China based on a compound index of meteorological drought. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15(4): 371-378.
[16]  Bao Y X, Meng C L, Shen S H, et al . Temporal and spatial patterns of droughts for recent 50 years in Jiangsu based on meteorological drought composite index. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(5): 599-608.
[17]  Zhang J, Liang S B, Xu X G, et al . Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of droughts for recent 50 years in Hebei province based on meteorological drought composite index. Resources Science, 2012, 34(6): 1089-1094.
[18]  GB/T 20481-2006. Meteorological Drought Grade[M]. Beijing: China Standard Press, 2007: 1-7.
[19]  National Climate Center. China Climate Impact Assessment (2008)[M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2009.
[20]  Li M J, Chen G H, Chen Y T. Study on tarbet standardization method of comprehensive evaluation. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2004, 12(10): 45-47.
[21]  Zou X K, Zhang Q. Preliminary studies on variations in droughts over China during past 50 years. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2008, 19(6): 679-687.
[22]  Liu X M, Li J, Lü Z H, et al . Dynamic changes of composite drought index in Liaoning province in recent 50 years. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2009, 28(5): 938-942.
[23]  Saaty T L. What is the Analytic Hierarchy Process[M]. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, 1988: 109-121.
[24]  亚行支援中国干旱管理战略研究课题组. 中国干旱灾害风险管理战略研究[M]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2011: 1-3.
[25]  黄小燕, 王小平, 王劲松, 等. 中国大陆1960-2012年持续干旱日数的时空变化特征. 干旱气象, 2014, 32(3): 326-333.
[26]  涂长望, 黄士松. 中国夏季风之进退. 气象学报, 1944, 18: 1-20.
[27]  王莺, 王劲松, 姚玉璧, 等. 基于温度植被干旱指数的广东省旱情动态监测. 草业学报, 2014, 23(2): 98-107.
[28]  孙成明, 刘涛, 田婷, 等. 基于MODIS的南方草地NPP遥感估算与应用. 草业学报, 2013, 22(5): 11-17. 浏览
[29]  尹晗, 李耀辉.我国西南干旱研究最新进展综述. 干旱气象, 2013, 31(1): 182-193.
[30]  Ashok K M, Vijay P S. A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 391(1-2): 202-216.
[31]  Houghton J T, Ding Y. The scientific basis//IPCC. Climate Change 2001: Summary for Policy Maker and Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report[M]. London: Cambridge University Press, 2001: 98.
[32]  IPCC. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change[M]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
[33]  IPCC. Summary for policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Specoal Report on Managing the Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation[M]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2011.
[34]  Huang C F. Risk Assessment of Natural Disaster Theory and Practice[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2005.
[35]  Pan D M, Wang J G. Risk assessment of summer drought in Altay area of Xinjiang. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2012, 30(2): 188-191.
[36]  Xiao M Z, Zhang Q, Chen X H. Spatial-temporal patterns of drought risk across the Pearl River Basin. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(1): 83-92.
[37]  Cao Y Q, Li X Y, Ma J, et al . Agricultural drought risk evaluation in Dalian based on the variable fuzzy method. Resources Science, 2011, 33(5): 983-988.
[38]  Kang X Y, Li C Q, Dai L Q. Risk assessment of drought for winter wheat production in Hebei province. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2012, 20(6): 232-237.
[39]  Sheng Q L, Xu G, Wang X C. Risk assessment of midsummer drought based on GIS in Chongqing city. Journal of Sichuan Normal University (Natural Science), 2010, 33(3): 388-392.
[40]  Li Y, Yang X G, Wang W F, et al . Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. Ⅰ. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in south China. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2010, 21(10): 2605-2614.
[41]  Xu X C, Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, et al . Drought risk assessment on regional agriculture: a case in southwest China. Progress in Geography, 2011, 30(7): 883-890.
[42]  Tian S J, Yang S M, Kong F L, et al . Screening in southwest China of drought-resistant varieties of maize at the seedling stage. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2014, 23(1): 50-57.
[43]  Chongqing Statistical Bureau. Chongqing Statistical Yearbook: 2013[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2013.
[44]  黄崇福. 自然灾害风险评价: 理论与实践[M]. 北京: 科学出版社,2005.
[45]  潘冬梅, 王建刚. 新疆阿勒泰地区夏旱风险评估分析. 干旱气象, 2012, 30(2): 188-191.
[46]  肖名忠, 张强, 陈晓宏. 基于多变量概率分析的珠江流域干旱特征研究. 地理学报,2012, 67(1): 83-92.
[47]  曹永强, 李香云, 马静, 等. 基于可变模糊算法的大连市农业干旱风险评价. 资源科学, 2011, 33(5): 983-988.
[48]  康西言, 李春强, 代立芹. 河北省冬小麦生产干旱风险分析. 干旱地区农业研究, 2012, 20(6): 232-237.
[49]  盛巧玲, 徐刚, 王新才. 基于GIS的重庆市伏旱风险性分析. 四川师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 33(3): 388-392.
[50]  李勇, 杨晓光, 王文峰, 等. 气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源变化Ⅰ. 华南地区农业气候资源时空变化特征. 应用生态学报, 2010, 21(10): 2605-2614.
[51]  徐新创, 葛全胜, 郑景云, 等. 区域农业干旱风险评估研究——以中国西南地区为例. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(7): 883-890.
[52]  田山君, 杨世民, 孔凡磊, 等. 西南地区玉米苗期抗旱品种筛选. 草业学报, 2014, 23(1): 50-57. 浏览
[53]  广东省统计局. 广东统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013.
[54]  广西壮族自治区统计局. 广西统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013.
[55]  贵州省统计局. 贵州统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013.
[56]  云南省统计局. 云南统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013.
[57]  四川省统计局. 四川统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013.
[58]  重庆市统计局. 重庆统计年鉴: 2013[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2013.
[59]  张强, 韩兰英, 张立阳, 等. 论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(1): 80-91.
[60]  邹旭恺, 任国玉, 张强. 基于综合气象干旱指数的中国干旱变化趋势研究. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(4): 371-378.
[61]  包云轩, 孟翠丽, 申双和, 等. 基于 CI 指数的江苏省近50年干旱时空分布规律. 地理学报, 2011, 66(5): 599-608.
[62]  张婧, 梁树柏, 许晓光, 等. 基于 CI 指数的河北省近50年干旱时空分布特征. 资源科学, 2012, 34(6): 1089-1094.
[63]  GB/T 20481-2006. 气象干旱等级[M]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2007: 1-7.
[64]  中国气象局国家气候中心. 全国气候影响评价(2008)[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2009.
[65]  李美娟, 陈国宏, 陈衍泰. 综合评价中指标标准化方法研究. 中国管理科学, 2004, 12(10): 45-47.
[66]  邹旭恺, 张强. 近半个世纪我国干旱变化的初步研究. 应用气象学报, 2008, 19(6): 679-687.
[67]  刘晓梅, 李晶, 吕志红, 等. 近50年辽宁省干旱综合指数的动态变化. 生态学杂志, 2009, 28(5): 938-942.

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133