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长江上游径流趋势分析及分布式小时模型应用

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2011.02.26, PP. 291-294

Keywords: 长江上游,Kendall秩次相关法,径流变化,分布式小时模型,径流模拟,TheupperYangtzeRiver,Kendallcorrelatedmethod,runoffchange,distributedhourlywaterbalancemodel,simulationofrunoff

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Abstract:

:？以长江上游流域6个主要控制测站实测数据为研究基础,利用Kendall秩次相关法对长江上游流域径流变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:除金沙江屏山站全年和乌江武隆站汛期径流略有增加外,其它测站控制流域内径流均有不同程度减少,其中嘉陵江北碚站、岷江高场站和沱江富顺站径流均显著减少,长江上游干流控制站寸滩站径流则微弱减少。结合GIS和DEM建立分布式小时水量平衡模型,将模型应用寸滩站1981年特大洪水过程进行模拟,模拟结果表明模型精度较高,效率系数0.982,相关系数0.955,水量平衡系数1.001,其它年份模拟效率系数均在0.85以上,水量平衡误差均在5%以内,实测流量与模拟流量吻合较好。

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