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短时路段行程时间分布预测方法研究

DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-0696.2015.02.23, PP. 108-111

Keywords: 交通工程,路段行程时间,分布,预测方法,自适应,trafficengineering,pathtravel-time,distribution,predictionmethod,self-adaption

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Abstract:

:?为有效利用历史路段行程时间数据,提高短时路段行程时间分布估计精度,提出了一种自适应数据融合方法。通过分析历史行程时间数据与实时行程时间数据间的关系,构建了二者间的映射模型,有效地将非精确对应下的数据区间映射为精确对应状态,并根据所建非线性模型得到预测数据分布,极大地提高了行程时间分布的预测精度。考虑时间延迟等因素,采用DYNASMART仿真软件对所提出的方法进行了模拟验证。结果表明:随着采集步长的增加,应用自适应数据融合方法得到的短时行程时间预测分布与随时间变化的实际行程时间分布状态保持一致,这有效保障了数据预测的质量,为智能交通管控策略的制定提供可靠的依据。

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