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自然异动下关键基础设施网络风险研究

, PP. 66-73

Keywords: 自然异动,关键基础设施,风险识别,复杂网络,级联效应

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Abstract:

?关键基础设施保护是突发事件应急管理的重要对象构成,确定风险和保护排序是其保护机制的基本依据。在自然异动约束下,本文将信息扩散理论的超越概率引入风险分析模型,研究跨区域网络级联失效造成的风险,提出了确定关键基础设施网络构件的风险等级及保护排序的方法。以覆冰灾害下电网为例,研究了电网中不同支路在覆冰灾害下面临风险程度,与基本脆弱点进行对比,验证以异动风险作为保护参考的合理性。

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