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投资政策不确定条件下的寡头发电容量投资分析

, PP. 26-32

Keywords: 实物期权,容量投资,政策不确定,电力市场

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Abstract:

?投资政策是影响发电容量投资策略的重要因素之一。论文运用实物期权理论,构建电力需求与投资政策双重不确定条件下的发电容量投资模型,在模型的求解与分析基础上,对两个投资阈值进行数值仿真分析,分析结果表明:(1)当投资补贴比率较低时,取消“投资补贴”政策预期越大,发电商越延迟其容量投资,而当补贴比率较高时则抢先投资,在“投资补贴”政策即将被取消时发电商投资积极性最大;(2)实施“投资补贴”政策预期越大,发电商越延迟其容量投资,在“投资补贴”政策即将实施时发电商尽最大可能延迟其投资。

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