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基于灰色理论和马尔科夫模型的城市公交客运量预测方法

, PP. 169-175

Keywords: 交通工程,城市公交,灰色理论,客运量,预测方法,马尔科夫模型

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Abstract:

?为保证城市公交客运相关政策及运力配置的科学性,分析了影响城市公交客运量的相关因素,并应用灰色理论对2004~2009年西安市的城市公交客运量进行了分析,构建序列累加生成数列,建立预测模型并进行了模型残差检验。以-15%,-3%,0,3%为划分阈值,将灰色理论模型的相对误差划分为3个状态区间,应用马尔科夫模型对灰色理论模型的预测结果进行修正,并与实际结果进行比较。研究结果表明:应用指数平滑法,西安市2010,2011年的城市公交客运量的预测结果分别为162278万、169867万人,预测误差分别为-3.5112%,-3.0740%;应用模糊线性回归模型,预测结果分别为163976万、171898万人,预测误差分别为-2.5003%,-1.9149%;应用灰色理论,预测结果分别为164314万、172458万人,预测误差分别为-2.2990%,-1.5954%。应用提出的方法,预测结果分别为166933万、176349万人,预测误差分别为0.7432%,0.6219%。可见,提出的方法精度较高,满足实际需求。

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