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基于风险决策和保险定价的桥梁颤振风险评估

, PP. 58-64

Keywords: 桥梁工程,颤振,理论分析,风险评估,失效概率,桥梁投资,桥梁保险

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Abstract:

?为了评估因桥梁颤振带来的经济风险,提出了一种全新的桥梁颤振风险评估方法。该方法基于一种已有的4变量桥梁颤振可靠度模型,先采用MonteCarlo方法计算桥梁颤振的失效概率,然后用货币的形式定量地刻画桥梁颤振的风险,并引入效用理论进行风险决策。最后,运用该方法对上海颗珠山斜拉桥进行了颤振风险分析。结果表明:该方法简单实用,所得的结果可以作为桥梁投资和保险定价的依据。

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