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基于K最近邻算法的高速公路短时行程时间预测

, PP. 102-111

Keywords: 交通工程,短时交通流预测,K最近邻非参数回归,行程时间,高速公路收费数据

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Abstract:

?为了在高速公路已有交通信息数据基础上实现行程时间的短时预测,构建并改善了基于K最近邻非参数回归的预测方法。首先利用收费数据中车辆进出高速公路的地点与时刻信息建立了行程时间数据集,并通过数据补充算法解决了当收费站间由于缺少收费数据而无法获取历史行程时间的问题;然后,根据交通事故持续时间以及全天不同时段交通状况特征将历史行程时间数据集分为7类,并采用交叉验证的方法标定了各类历史数据集中的K值。结果表明:各时段行程时间预测值的平均绝对误差百分比都在5%以内;历史数据集分类能有效提高模型预测准确度;与发布前期行程时间和自回归模型预测结果相比,该方法具有更好的预测准确度与反应及时性。

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