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恐怖组织网络的时空演化规律

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2013.00770, PP. 770-779

Keywords: 恐怖组织网络,时空演化,小世界,无标度,信念及资源

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Abstract:

?为了理解恐怖组织网络的时空演化特性及形成机理,本文运用统计物理学方法,结合Multi-agent,提出了一个恐怖组织网络的时空演化模型,并对恐怖组织网络的演化规律进行了数值模拟研究.模拟过程中考虑了恐怖组织网络在时间与空间上节点与边的动态联结变化.研究发现:网络演化过程中,恐怖组织的网络演化不仅兼具小世界、无标度特性和等级结构,不同级别的中心节点将网络连为一体,而且存在促进恐怖网络不断演化的主要因素,即与恐怖分子信念的增加及环境资源的增长有关;反恐方的选择性打击对网络的增长具有抑制作用和一定的控制效果.

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