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基于平行系统的恐怖突发事件下恐惧传播的仿真研究

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1004.2012.01321, PP. 1321-1328

Keywords: 平行系统,恐怖事件,恐惧传播,仿真,系统动力学模型

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Abstract:

?理解恐怖突发事件下公众对恐惧的反应是反恐的一个非常关键性的问题.针对恐怖突发事件下恐惧传播的演化过程,应用平行系统的思想,采用仿真软件Stella构建了恐惧传播演化的人工系统.此研究主要有两个目的:1)恐怖事件发生后,在一个城市中影响恐惧传播的关键性要素有哪些;2)分析恐惧如何演化传播.研究表明,恐惧的传播具有一定的规律性,社区干扰越强,恐惧传播的时间将会延长;恐怖事件发生之初,风险感知能力增长较快但下降较慢.这些发现对理解恐怖突发事件下公众对恐惧的反应具有较强的指导意义.

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