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基于智能体响应均衡模型的经济政策-电力需求动态模拟

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2014.07.024, PP. 1206-1212

Keywords: 智能体响应均衡,经济政策,动态模拟,电力需求

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Abstract:

为了研究经济政策对电力需求的影响,利用智能体响应均衡模型(agentsresponseequilibrium,ARE)构建了经济政策对电力需求影响的模拟系统。介绍ARE模型模拟经济政策对经济和电力需求影响的机理,设计行业、居民、银行、政府和市场智能体(Agent),描述了智能体的结构及其交互机制,模拟系统能实时输出商品价格曲线和行业产值曲线,专家以此可以分析经济运行情况并调整模型中的政策变量;同时比较减税后经济发展和电力需求的变化,分析了政策变化对行业电力需求的影响,分析结果可为决策者研究经济政策对电力需求的影响提供参考。

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