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光伏发电系统可靠性分析及其置信容量计算

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2014.01.002, PP. 15-21

Keywords: 光伏发电系统,可靠性指标,置信容量,分层抽样,序贯蒙特卡洛法,线性插值法

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Abstract:

大规模光伏发电的接入增加了系统的不确定因素。该文针对光伏发电出力的时序性和随机性,通过天气类型抽样和设备停运概率的分层抽样改进了光伏发电系统的出力模型。将模型应用于并网光伏发电系统的可靠性评估和置信容量的计算中,研究了天气变化、设备故障等随机因素对计算结果的影响,提高了计算的精度。通过对2015年青海省格尔木市并网光伏系统的计算分析,发现电网规模的扩大和光伏电站的分散分布有助于光伏发电置信容量的提升。

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