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双变量小波阈值去噪和改进混沌预测模型在短期电力负荷预测中的应用

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.22.006, PP. 5723-5730

Keywords: 负荷预测,小波阈值去噪,双变量阈值函数,混沌预测模型改进

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Abstract:

混沌预测是电力负荷预测研究的新焦点。该文提出双变量阈值函数和改进混沌预测模型相结合的新方法。该方法克服了传统最大Lyapunov指数预测模型对噪声干扰比较敏感、计算量大、预测时间长以及预测精度不高等缺陷。通过对典型混沌系统和实际电力负荷系统进行短期预测分析,证明该方法能较好排除无关因素对预测的干扰,缩短预测时间,有效提高预测精度。

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