全部 标题 作者
关键词 摘要

OALib Journal期刊
ISSN: 2333-9721
费用:99美元

查看量下载量

相关文章

更多...

短期风电功率预测误差的混合偏态分布模型

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.10.002, PP. 2375-2382

Keywords: 短期风电预测,误差分布,混合偏态分布,有偏性,多峰性,参数估计

Full-Text   Cite this paper   Add to My Lib

Abstract:

风电功率预测目前仍存在较大误差,决策需结合其不确定性信息。分析实际运行系统中短期风电预测的误差,得到不同规模及出力区间下的误差分布呈有偏、重尾、多峰等特性。为此,提出混合偏态分布模型估计短期风电预测误差分布,并通过概率密度曲线非线性拟合进行参数估计。通过一个实际运行的区域风电预测系统数据,验证了混合偏态分布模型能很好的描述风电预测误差分布特性。相比较其它分布模型,该模型应用范围更广,拟合精度更高,灵活性更强,能够用于描述不同情况下风电预测误差分布。

References

[1]  张丽英,叶廷路,辛耀中,等.大规模风电接入电网的相关问题及措施[J].中国电机工程学报,2010,30(25):1-9.Zhang Liying,Ye Tinglu,Xin Yaozhong,et al.Problems and measures of power grid accommodating large scale wind power[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2010,30(25):1-9(in Chinese).
[2]  徐曼,乔颖,鲁宗相.短期风电功率预测误差综合评价方法[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(12):20-26.Xu Man,Qiao Ying,Lu Zongxiang.A comprehensive error evaluation method for short-term wind power prediction[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(12):20-26.
[3]  汤奕,王琦,陈宁,等.考虑预测误差分布特性的风电场集群调度方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(25):27-32.Tang Yi,Wang Qi,Chen Ning,et al.A dispatching method of active power in wind farm clusters considering probability distribution of forecasting errors [J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(25):27-32(in Chinese).
[4]  夏澍,周明,李庚银.考虑线路安全校核的含风电电力系统有功和备用协调调度[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(13):18-26.Xia Shu,Zhou Ming,Li Gengyin.A coordinated active power and reserve dispatch approach for wind power integrated power systems considering line security verification[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(13):18-26(in Chinese).
[5]  艾欣,刘晓.基于可信性理论的含风电场电力系统动态经济调度[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(S1):12-18.Ai Xin,Liu Xiao.Dynamic economic dispatch for wind farms integrated power system based on credibility theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(S1):12-18(in Chinese).
[6]  刘芳,潘毅,刘辉,等.风电功率预测误差分段指数分布模型[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(18): 14-19.Liu Fang,Pan Yi,Liu Hui,et al.Piecewise exponential distribution model of wind power forecasting error [J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013, 37(18):14-19(in Chinese).
[7]  刘斌,周京阳,周海明,等.一种改进的风电功率预测误差分布模型[J].华东电力,2012,40(2):286-291.Liu Bin,Zhou Jingyang,Zhou Haiming,et al.An improved model for wind power forecast error distribution[J].East China Electric Power,2012,40(2):286-291(in Chinese).
[8]  Tewari S,Geyer C J,Mohan N.A statistical model for wind power forecast error and its application to the estimation of penalties in liberalized markets[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2011,26(4):2031-2039.
[9]  Hodge B,Milligan M.Wind power forecasting error distributions over multiple timescales[C]//Power and Energy Society General Meeting.San Diego:IEEE,2011:1-8.
[10]  Tsikalakis A G,Katsigiannis Y A,Georgilakis P S,et al.Determining and exploiting the distribution function of wind power forecasting error for the economic operation of autonomous power systems[C]//Power Engineering Society General Meeting.Montreal:IEEE,2006:1-8.
[11]  邓兆卉.收入分配公平性的偏态分布描述方法研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2009.Deng Zhaohui.Study on fairness of income distribution based on descriptive statistics of skewed distribution [D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2009(in Chinese).
[12]  Lin T I,Lee J C,Hsieh W J.Robust mixture modeling using the skew t distribution[J].Statistics and Computing,2007,17(2):81-92.
[13]  咸巍.偏正态混合时间序列模型[D].吉林:吉林大学,2010.Xian Wei.Skew normal mixture time series models [D].Jilin:Jilin University,2010(in Chinese).
[14]  周娟.MCMC应用于参数贝叶斯估计[D].武汉:湖北大学,2008.Zhou Juan.Parameter Bayesian estimation by MCMC [D].Wuhan:Hubei University,2008(in Chinese).
[15]  Richardson S.Green P J.On Bayesian analysis of mixtures with an unknown number of components [J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1997,59(4):731-758.
[16]  Bernardi M,Maruotti A,Petrella L.Skew mixture models for loss distributions:A Bayesian approach [J].Mathematics and Economics,2012,51(3):617-623.
[17]  Dempster A P,Laird N M,Rubin D B.Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm [J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1977,39(2):1-38.
[18]  Yang X.A higher-order Levenberg-Marquardt method for nonlinear equations[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation,2013,219(22):10682-10694.
[19]  张东英,李伟花,刘燕华,等.风电场有功功率异常运行数据重构方法[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(5):14-18.Zhang Dongying,Li Weihua,Liu Yanhua,et al.Reconstruction method of active power historical operating data for wind farm[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(5):14-18(in Chinese).
[20]  宋薇.大规模风电场超短期风电功率预测的误差分析与评价[D].吉林:东北电力大学,2013.Song Wei.The error analysis and evaluation of large-scale wind farm ultra-short term wind power prediction [D].Jilin:Northeast Dianli University,2013(in Chinese).

Full-Text

Contact Us

service@oalib.com

QQ:3279437679

WhatsApp +8615387084133