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一种基于Beta分布的风电功率预测误差最小概率区间的模型和算法

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.09.005, PP. 2135-2142

Keywords: 风电功率,预测误差,Beta分布,最小概率区间,最优化模型和算法

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Abstract:

针对用正态分布计算风电功率预测误差区间时出现的问题,提出一种基于Beta分布的风电功率预测误差区间的估计方法。该方法根据发电调度对系统备用容量安全性和经济性的要求,建立一个能够计算任意概率水平、Beta分布最小概率区间的优化模型,通过引入Beta分布函数的反函数形式,把等式约束的优化问题简化成一个无约束的优化问题,并根据Beta分布特点给出了一个快速的算法。仿真结果证明了所提模型、算法的正确性,和Beta分布的合理性。

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