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基于Kriging代理模型方法的含风电场电力系统暂态稳定不确定性分析

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2015.08.004, PP. 1853-1863

Keywords: 风电并网,Kriging代理模型,暂态稳定不确定性,风速相关性,概率权重矩,三阶多项式正态变换

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Abstract:

在电网规划过程中,为了研究风电场并网运行电力系统的暂态稳定不确定性,采用Kriging代理模型来模拟电力系统。将基于概率权重矩的三阶多项式正态变换法预测得到的相关性随机风速作为随机输入,进行系统暂态时域仿真得到随机响应,建立系统Kriging代理模型,将随机输入和随机响应之间的复杂隐式函数简单显示化,与蒙特卡洛法相比相同仿真次数用Kriging代理模型可更快速地得到系统响应的统计信息。IEEE39节点算例验证了Kriging代理模型对模拟系统的有效性、准确性、高效性。云南电网实际系统算例验证了Kriging代理模型对真实电力系统的实用性,同时表明风速的随机性会引起系统响应不确定性,对系统安全稳定运行产生一定影响。

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