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计及输入变量相关性的半不变量法概率潮流计算

, PP. 104-113

Keywords: 概率潮流,半不变量法,相关性,Cholesky分解,蒙特卡罗抽样

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Abstract:

概率潮流(probabilisticloadflow,PLF)计算是电力系统稳态运行分析的重要工具。传统半不变量法概率潮流(PLFbasedoncumulantmethod,PLF-CM)要求各输入变量相互独立,这使其不能直接应用于输入变量具有相关性的场合。针对这一情况,提出一种基于Cholesky分解的计及输入变量相关性的PLF-CM计算方法。同时,为解决一些输入变量的半不变量难以被常规数值方法求解的问题,提出基于蒙特卡罗抽样的方法,该方法利用输入变量的样本计算其半不变量。对改进的IEEE14节点系统进行仿真计算,结果验证了所提方法的有效性、准确性和实用性。在此基础上利用所提方法分析了风速相关性对系统运行特性的影响。结果表明系统运行特性受风速相关性影响较大。

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