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基于云理论和元胞自动机理论的城市配电网空间负荷预测

, PP. 98-105

Keywords: 空间负荷预测,云理论,元胞自动机,转换规则

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Abstract:

针对城市电网规划中电力负荷空间分布和时间动态演化预测难题,提出一种采用元胞自动机(cellularautomata,CA)模拟城市土地利用的逐年发展过程进而进行城市配电网空间负荷预测方法。该方法基于云模型的知识,将影响因素的定性概念所具有的模糊性、随机性有机地结合在一起,构成定性和定量间的相互映射。综合考虑多种影响负荷发展的因素,运用云理论训练CA转换规则,制定多种转换规则来预测规划区域地块的发展程度。通过应用所提模型和方法对某规划小区负荷发展进行预测及实际对比,验证了其有效性。

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