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蒙特卡罗法在分布式供能系统不确定性评价中的应用

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Keywords: 蒙特卡罗法,分布式供能系统,优化运行,不确定性评价,概率抽样

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Abstract:

分布式供能系统的设计和运行易受诸多不确定性因素的影响。文中以分布式供能系统优化运行程序和评价指标模型为基础,运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对分布式供能项目进行不确定性评价。对某分布式供能系统进行了仿真研究,计算了系统各评价指标的概率分布及关键影响因素。案例计算结果表明:一次能源利用率预测的风险度较低,年能耗费用、年CO2减排率和年NOx减排率预测的风险度均较高;系统年能耗费用和一次能源利用率的最大影响因素为电负荷,年CO2减排率和年NOx减排率的最大影响因素为天然气价;多余电力上网政策对系统的4种评价指标均会产生一定的影响。计算结果同时验证了蒙特卡罗模拟方法在分布式供能系统不确定性评价中的有效性。

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