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DG出力不确定性对配电网影响力分析的复仿射数学方法

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2014.31.007, PP. 5507-5515

Keywords: 配电网,仿射算法,分布式电源,不确定影响力,不确定潮流

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Abstract:

风力、光伏发电受天气变化影响,功率输出具有随机性和不确定性。大量风力、光伏发电系统以分布式电源形式接入配网,导致了配电网潮流的不确定性。采用仿射数表达分布式电源出力的不确定性,提出了基于仿射数学的三相前推回代仿射潮流算法解决配电网不确定潮流问题。仿射数能够记录不确定变量之间的相关性,利用此性质提出了不确定变量相对影响力指标。采用33节点典型配电系统进行验证分析,结果表明,所提指标能够定量分析分布式电源出力不确定性对配电网各节点电压的影响情况。

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