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基于快速随机潮流的电力系统安全风险评估

DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2014.22.025, PP. 3784-3790

Keywords: 安全风险评估,快速随机潮流,功频静态特性,系统频率,多场景

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Abstract:

电力系统中各种不确定性因素为安全风险评估工作带来困难,随机潮流计算可以计及这些不确定性因素。提出一种基于快速随机潮流的电力系统安全风险评估方法,通过考虑风电时序特性的短期风电功率预测方法构造风电出力多场景;在快速解耦潮流模型的基础上,考虑电力系统功频静态特性,采用以半不变量为基础的改进VonMises方法获得各状态变量的概率分布函数。除节点电压和支路功率外,可以得到系统频率的概率分布等统计信息,通过各状态变量越限概率和产生后果的严重程度等风险指标全面评估系统风险。IEEE39节点系统的测试结果表明该方法的计算快速有效,具有在线应用前景。

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