Chen H P.Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58:1-10.
[11]
Xu C H,Xu Y.The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5:527-533.
[12]
Xu Y,Xu C H.Preliminary assessment of simulations of climate changes over China by CMIP5 multi-models[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5:489-494.
[13]
Zhang Y.Projections of 2~0 ℃ warming over the globe and China under RCP4~5[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5:514-520.
[14]
Jiang D B,Zhang Y,Sun J Q.Ensemble projection of 1-3 ℃ warming in China[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2009,54(24):3326-3334.
IPCC.Climate Change 2007:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability [M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2007:779-810.
[21]
Moss R H,Edmonds J A,Hibbard K A,et al.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment[J].Nature,2010,463:747-756.
[22]
Yoshikane T,Kimura F,Kawase H,et al.Verification of the performance of the pseudo-global-warming method for future climate changes during June in East Asia[J].SOLA,2012,8:133-136.
[23]
van Vuuren D P,Edmonds J,Kainuma M,et al.The representative concentration pathways:an overview[J].Climatic Change,2011,109(1):5-31.
[24]
Taylor K E,Stouffer R J,Meehl G A.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2012,93(4):485-498.
[25]
Meinshausen M,Meinshausen N,Hare W,et al.Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 ℃[J].Nature,2009,458(7242):1158-1162.
[26]
王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等.气候模式[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(2):150-154.
[27]
Maslin M,Austin P.Uncertainty:climate models at their limit?[J].Nature,2012,486:183-184.
[28]
Xu Y,Gao X J, Giorgi F.Upgrades to the reliability ensemble averaging method for producing probabilistic climate-change projections[J].Climate Research,2010,41(1):61-81.
[29]
Semenov M A,Stratonovitch P.Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts[J].Climate Research,2010,41(1):1-14.
[30]
Collins M.Ensembles and probabilities:a new era in the prediction of climate change[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A,2007,365:1957-1970.
[31]
Knutson T R,Zeng F R,Wittenberg A T.Multimodel assessment of regional surface temperature trends:CMIP3 and CMIP5 twentieth-century simulations[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(22):8709-8743.
[32]
Sch?r C,Frei C,L thi D,et al.Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1996,23(6):669-672.
[33]
Kimura F,Kitoh A.Downscaling by Pseudo Global Warming Method[R].The Final Report of ICCAP,2007,4346.
[34]
Rasmussen R,Liu C,Ikeda K,et al.High-resolution coupled climate runoff simulations of seasonal snowfall over Colorado:a process study of current and warmer climate[J].Journal of Climate,2011,24(12):3015-3048.