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棉花学报  2015 

近52年北疆气候变化对棉花种植气候适宜性分区的影响

DOI: 1002-7807(2015)01-0022-09, PP. 22-30

Keywords: 气候变化,≥10℃积温,7月份平均气温,无霜冻期,棉花区划,北疆

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Abstract:

基于北疆52个气象台站1961―2012年逐年≥10℃积温、最热月（7月）平均气温和无霜冻期资料，使用ArcGIS空间插值技术对上述各热量要素的空间分布进行模拟，使用线性趋势和年代间比较对近52年各热量要素的变化进行分析，结合棉花气候分区指标，完成了1961―1970年、1971―1980年、1981―1990年、1991―2000年和2001―2012年5个时段的北疆棉花种植气候适宜性分区；并对比分析了各时段宜棉区、次宜棉区、风险棉区和不宜棉区分布区域和面积的变化。结果表明北疆热量资源的空间分布总体呈现“平原和盆地多，山区少”的特点；在气候变暖背景下，近52年北疆≥l0℃积温、7月份平均气温和无霜冻期分别以每10年75.657℃、0.218℃和4.36d的斜率呈显著的上升趋势，并且20世纪90年代以来上升速率呈增大趋势。受其影响，近52年，尤其是20世纪90年代以来，北疆宜棉区面积明显扩大，次宜棉区和不宜棉区有所减小，风险棉区变化不大。2001―2012年与20世纪60年代相比，宜棉区面积扩大了6.54164×104km2；次宜棉区和不宜棉区分别缩小了0.99982×104km2和5.28675×104km2。

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