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科学通报  2011 

近千年中国东部夏季气候百年尺度变化的模拟分析

, PP. 1562-1567

Keywords: 近千年,中国东部,Lanczos,滤波,百年尺度,夏季气候

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Abstract:

利用全球海气耦合模式ECHO-G近千年积分模拟试验结果,通过Lanczos滤波器滤去100年以下的年际-年代际变化信号,保留百年尺度的气候变化信息,分析了近千年来中国东部夏季气候在百年尺度上的时空变化特征并探讨了影响其变化的主要原因.结果表明(1)近千年中国东部经历了暖-冷-暖3个阶段,由暖期进入冷期相对由冷期进入暖期缓慢,暖期降水多冷期降水少,降水的峰谷变化滞后于温度.有效太阳辐射和太阳辐照度分别是影响温度和降水变化最显著的因子,现代暖期之前火山活动的增强对极端低温的出现有明显影响,火山活动与降水在1400AD之前为正相关,在1400AD之后为负相关,温室气体浓度与现代暖期温度和降水有一致的变化趋势.(2)温度的百年尺度与年际-年代际尺度的第一特征向量的空间分布型都为全区一致分布,高纬的变率大于低纬,这一分布型主要受有效太阳辐射和温室气体的共同影响.降水第一特征向量的空间分布型在百年尺度与年际-年代际尺度上存在着显著差别,百年尺度为全区一致的分布,而在年际-年代际尺度上长江和黄河中下游与其两侧的区域呈反相分布,太阳辐照度和温室气体共同影响了降水百年尺度上的这一空间分布型.

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