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科学通报  2011 

过去千年3个特征期气候的FGOALS耦合模式模拟

, PP. 2083-2095

Keywords: 中世纪暖期,小冰期,20,世纪增暖,耦合模式,温度,东亚夏季风

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Abstract:

利用一个气候系统模式,对过去千年气候演变的3个特征期——中世纪暖期、小冰期和20世纪增暖期,进行了系列平衡态模拟和瞬变强迫模拟试验,比较了3个特征期气候的异同点.结果表明中世纪暖期的暖信号在除北太平洋中纬度以外的全球大部分地区普遍存在,但自然增暖的幅度整体上较20世纪要弱;北半球中高纬地区的增温幅度大于南半球.小冰期变冷近乎是全球性的,在欧亚大陆及高纬地区尤为显著,变冷极大值位于北极地区的表层.中世纪暖期和20世纪温度变化的垂直结构表现出类似特征,最强增温都出现在热带对流层中上层的200~300hPa.与暖期不同,小冰期的变冷主要表现为极地强化.模拟结果与重建资料的比较表明,模式对暖期温度变化的模拟能力强于冷期,对中低纬地区温度变化的模拟能力强于高纬地区.东亚夏季风的年际变率特征受背景气候态的影响不大,不同特征期年际变率的降水距平型近乎相同,但是主导周期变化显著,东亚夏季风的准两年振荡现象在暖期更容易出现,在冷期则不明显.在百年尺度上,有效太阳辐射外强迫变化驱动的季风变化外部模态由大尺度海陆热力对比的变化决定,在110°E以东降水呈现出“南北同号”的特征,这与伴随耦合系统内部变率出现的“南北反号”的降水距平型不同.

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