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科学通报  2011 

外强迫驱动下气候系统模式模拟的近千年大气涛动

, PP. 2096-2106

Keywords: 千年气候,大气涛动,外强迫,气候系统模式

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Abstract:

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)气候系统模式进行的过去千年气候模拟数据,分析了近千年大气涛动的变化,并与重建资料进行了比较.基于代用资料的近千年大气涛动重建序列表明,北大西洋涛动(NAO)与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的演变在千年尺度上呈反位相变化,在中世纪暖期(MWP)期间,NAO强,PDO弱;在小冰期(LIA)期间,NAO弱,PDO强.MWP期间盛行类LaNi?a状态,LIA期间盛行类ElNi?o状态,15,17,19世纪最明显.模式基本再现了1000~1400ADNAO正位相及1650~1900ADNAO负位相特征,但模拟的NAO在1400~1650AD与重建结果差别较大.模拟的PDO演变与重建资料较为一致,均表现为MWP期间PDO负位相(1000~1400AD)、LIA期间PDO正位相(1400~1900AD)的特征,模拟与重建结果的相关系数可达0.61.模拟的近千年Ni?o-3指数演变与重建资料差别较大,模拟结果表现为中世纪暖期ENSO正位相、小冰期ENSO负位相的特征.模拟与重建的近千年南极涛动(AAO)均表现为中前期负位相、后期正位相的变化特征.模式可以合理再现MWP期间亚洲-太平洋涛动(APO)指数整体偏强,LIA期间APO指数整体偏弱的特征,在1000~1985AD期间,模拟与重建结果的相关系数为0.50.太阳辐射和火山活动等外强迫变化是影响近千年大气涛动变率周期的重要因子之一.

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