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科学通报  2011 

重建千年东亚夏季风干湿分布型指数

, PP. 2075-2082

Keywords: 重建季风指数,千年序列,干湿分布,年代际变化,东亚

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Abstract:

利用中国气象局整编的中国1951~2008年160站月平均降水量和美国NCEP再分析月平均风和湿度资料,建立了我国东部地区夏季干湿分布型与东亚夏季风向北推进的关系.利用王绍武建立的公元950年以来的我国东部历史时期6种夏季干湿分布型,重建了过去千年东亚夏季风干湿分布型指数序列.高(低)指数指示东亚夏季风气流偏强(弱),推进位置偏北(南),对应北方(南方)降水偏多的分布型.东亚季风干湿分布型指数具有60~70年的周期性年代际变化.过去千年中,我国北方出现过连续10年的区域湿润期和连续10年以上的区域干旱期.当前东亚夏季风干湿分布型指数正处于年代际的低谷时期,对应着我国南方降水偏多,北方降水偏少的分布格局.

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