1 IPCC. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, et al., eds. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 1-996
[2]
2 Ding Y H, Ren G Y, Zhao Z C, et al. Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress. Adv Atmos Sci, 2007, 24: 954-971
[3]
3 Schneider S H, Semenov S, Patwardhan A, et al. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Parry M L, Canziani O F, Palutikof J P, et al., eds. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 779-810
[4]
4 Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, et al. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2℃. Nature, 2009, 458: 1158-1163
[5]
10 van Vuuren D P, Stehfest E, den Elzen M G J, et al. RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2℃. Clim Change, 2011, 109: 95-116
[6]
11 Joshi M, Hawkins E, Sutton R, et al. Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. Nat Clim Chang, 2011, 1: 407-412
[7]
12 Kaplan J O, New M. Arctic climate change with a 2℃ global warming: Timing, climate patterns and vegetation change. Clim Change, 2006, 79: 213-241
[8]
18 Wang H J, Sun J Q, Chen H P, et al. Extreme climate in China: Facts, simulation and projection. Meteorol Z, 2012, 21: 279-304
[9]
23 Zhang D F, Gao X J, Ouyang L C. Simulation of present climate over East Asia by a regional climate model. J Trop Meteorol, 2008, 14: 19-23
[10]
24 Gao X, Shi Y, Song R, et al. Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: Comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM. Meteorol Atmos Phys, 2008, 100: 73-86
[11]
25 Yu E T, Wang H J, Sun J Q. A quick report on a dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested model. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett, 2010, 3: 325-329
[12]
27 Shi Y, Gao X J, Zhang D F, et al. Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra River Basin in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model. Quat Int, 244: 159-168
[13]
29 Gao X J, Shi Y, Zhang D F, et al. Uncertainties in monsoon precipitation projections over China: Results from two high-resolution RCM simulations. Clim Res, 2012, 52: 213-226
[14]
5 Fischlin A, Midgley G F, Price J T, et al. Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In: Parry M L, Canziani O F, Palutikof J P, et al., eds. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 211-272
7 Gleick P H, Adams R M, Amasino R M, et al. Climate change and the integrity of science. Science, 2010, 328: 689-690
[17]
8 Guivarch C, Hallegatte S. Existing infrastructure and the 2℃ target. Clim Change, 2011, 109: 801-805
[18]
9 Rogelj J, Hare W, Lowe J, et al. Emission pathways consistent with a 2℃ global temperature limit. Nat Clim Chang, 2011, 1: 413-418
[19]
13 Giannakopoulos C, Le Sager P, Bindi M, et al. Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2℃ global warming. Glob Planet Change, 2009, 68: 209-224
[20]
14 May W. The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2℃ with respect to pre-industrial times. Clim Dyn, 2011, 37: 1843-1868
[21]
15 May W. Assessing the strength of regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2℃. Clim Change, 2012, 110: 619-644
[22]
16 Anderson B T. Intensification of seasonal extremes given a 2℃ global warming target. Clim Change, 2012, 112: 325-337
[23]
17 Xu Y, Xu C H, Gao X J, et al. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin of China in the 21st century. Quat Int, 2009, 208: 44-52
21 Gao X J, Xu Y, Zhao Z C, et al. On the role of resolution and topography in the simulation of East Asia precipitation. Theor Appl Climatol, 2006, 86: 173-185
[27]
22 Ju L X, Wang H J, Jiang D. Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum climate over East Asia with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol, 2007, 248: 376-390
[28]
26 Pal J S, Giorgi F, Bi X Q, et al. Regional climate modeling for the developing world: The ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 2007, 88: 1395-1409
31 Sui Y, Lang X. Monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century: Resutls of RegCM3. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett, 2012, 5: 504-508
[32]
32 Frich P, Alexander L V, Della-Marta P, et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res, 2002, 19: 193-212
34 Chavas D R, Izaurralde R C, Thomson A M, et al. Long-term climate change impacts on agricultural productivity in eastern China. Agric For Meteorol, 2009, 149: 1118-1128
[35]
35 Xu H M, Taylor R G, Kingston D G, et al. Hydrological modeling of River Xiangxi using SWAT2005: A comparison of model parameterizations using station and gridded meteorological observations. Quat Int, 2010, 226: 54-59