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全球变暖背景下不同空间尺度降水谱的变化

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Keywords: 降水谱,全球增暖,空间尺度,极端降水,合成分析

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Abstract:

利用477个地面观测站上的日降水数据分析了中国整个降水强度谱在1961~2008年的长期变化特征.结果发现,毛毛雨整体呈现出空间一致的减少趋势,但不同区域的减少幅度存在明显差异.有观测记录的可测降水则表现出显著地季节性和区域性特征.秋季,可测降水部分在98°E以东的我国东部地区普遍减少,而夏季和冬季,在我国东部的南方地区,小雨减少而大雨呈现增加的趋势.在我国西部地区,可测降水在4个不同季节都是有所增加的.合成分析的结果显示全球尺度上气温和降水之间存在着准线性关系.不同强度的降水对全球性增暖的响应有所不同,表现为降水谱由小雨向强度较大的降水方向发生偏移.与海洋上的降水相比,陆地上的降水由于受到水汽条件的约束,变化幅度要相对偏小.另外,与全球尺度上的降水相比,区域降水随全球性增暖的变化表现出更大的不确定性,这很可能是由于局地复杂的地形和下垫面覆盖以及人类活动影响等因素所造成的.

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