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中国与北半球中高纬小雨事件的时空变化特征

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Keywords: 小雨,北半球中高纬,经验正交函数分解,大气层结稳定度,全球增暖

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Abstract:

基于站点逐日降水实测资料、英国气象局哈德莱中心(Hadley)的逐月高层探空气温资料和海表面温度资料、英国东英吉利大学气候研究中心(CRU)的逐月地面气温资料和NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,本文分析了1961~2010年夏半年和冬半年中国和北半球中高纬小雨事件的时空变化特征及其与大气层结稳定度、海表面温度和环流的关系.对中国小雨事件的长期趋势分析的结果表明,夏半年和冬半年东部小雨事件减少(3.0%/10a),西北地区小雨事件夏半年无明显的变化趋势,而冬半年有增加的趋势(4.1%/10a).经验正交函数分解的结果表明,夏半年和冬半年北半球中高纬小雨事件的前两模态的时间系数主要表现为长时间尺度的变化特征.夏半年和冬半年第一模态主要表现为近50a北美大陆、南欧和中国西北地区(夏半年除外)小雨事件有长期增加的趋势,欧亚大陆大部分地区(包括中欧、东欧、北亚和中国东部)有长期减少的趋势.夏半年的第二模态主要表现为1961至20世纪80年代早期北美大陆、南欧和中国南方小雨事件增加,而45°N以北的欧亚大陆大部分地区小雨事件减少,20世纪80年代后期至2010年变化趋势逆转.冬半年的第二模态主要表现为1961至20世纪80年代早期北美大陆、中国南方和华北小雨事件增加,而40°N以北的欧亚大陆小雨事件减少,20世纪80年代后期至2009年变化趋势逆转.线性回归和相关分析的结果表明,第一模态可能与全球增暖相联系的大气层结稳定度的长期变化趋势有关,第二模态可能与AMO有关.

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